25% of World Cup 2026 Matches at Risk of Dangerous Heat: Scientists Demand FIFA Lower Safety Threshold

As of May 20, one widely cited climate analysis from the **World Weather Attribution (WWA)** network argued that **26 out of 104 matches** — exactly 25% of the tournament — could be played in conditions exceeding key heat-stress thresholds for elite athletes.

The WWA report projects that **Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)** — the most widely used measure of heat stress in elite sport — could exceed **26°C** for a quarter of all matches. That is the threshold at which FIFPRO, the global players' union, recommends mandatory cooling breaks. At **28°C WBGT**, FIFPRO recommends match postponement. These figures come from the report and related player-welfare guidance rather than from FIFA itself.

The cities at highest risk: **Houston** (NRG Stadium), **Miami** (Hard Rock Stadium), **Monterrey** (Estadio BBVA), and **Dallas** (AT&T Stadium). The combination of high temperatures, humidity, and stadium microclimates creates conditions that could put players and fans at genuine risk.

Several host venues and surrounding fan areas have become part of the debate. While Qatar 2022 moved the entire tournament to November and built air-conditioned stadiums, World Cup 2026 returns to the traditional June-July window in North American summer. Retractable roofs help in some venues, but concerns remain about training sites, fan zones, and wider transportation infrastructure.

Afternoon kickoffs maximize European prime-time viewership — and advertising revenue. Moving matches to cooler evening slots would cost broadcasters millions and disrupt commercial schedules that have been locked in for years. Players and coaches have privately expressed concerns, but publicly FIFA has maintained that existing protocols are "appropriate for the conditions."